Canadian defenseman Matthew Schaefer, who’s recovering from a broken collarbone, is NHL Central Scouting’s top North American draft prospect in its midterm rankings.
He edged Boston College center James Hagens in rankings that were released on Tuesday, though Central Scouting said there was ‘no clear consensus’ on the top pick for the 2025 NHL draft.
“The top end of the 2025 NHL draft class has three or four strong candidates to consider for the first pick overall and at this point in the season Schaefer holds the lead,” Dan Marr vice president of NHL Central Scouting, said in a statement. “There was no clear No. 1 consensus with our group and many NHL clubs are in the same position. This is a deep draft class and the overall order is bound to shift by the time the final rankings are released in April.’
Schaefer has 22 points in 17 games with the Erie (Pennsylvania) Otters of the Ontario Hockey League. Hagens has 20 points in 18 games with Boston College.
Both played in the recent world junior hockey championship, which was won by the USA. Hagens had five goals, including two in the quarterfinals against Switzerland, and one in the final against Finland.
‘Hagens plays a pro-style game right now and has been impressive at every level displaying NHL skills and attributes with his hockey IQ being front and center,’ Marr said. ‘His vision, reads and skills are elite, and he executes plays with the composure of an NHL veteran and deserves to be in the conversation as the top pick.’
Canada was knocked out in the quarterfinals for a second consecutive year by Czechia, but it was without Schaefer in that game. He had a goal and assist in the opener against Finland but left the second game against Latvia after crashing into the net. He had surgery for a broken collarbone and is out indefinitely.
“Schaefer is the best available prospect at his position and the results he achieves on the ice with his combination of speed, skill and size gives him the edge for the No. 1 spot,” said Marr.
Victor Eklund, who played at the world juniors and is the brother of the San Jose Sharks’ William Eklund, is the top-ranked international skater.
Two standout goalies at the tournament – Finland silver medalist Petteri Rimpinen (fourth international) and Latvia’s Linards Feldbergs (20th North American) – made Central Scouting’s list. Canadian Joshua Ravensbergen and Russian Pyotr Andreyanov are the top North American and international goaltenders, respectively.
Top North American skaters
Rank, player, nationality
- Erie defenseman Matthew Schaefer, Canada
- Boston College center James Hagens, USA
- Saginaw (Michigan) center Michael Misa, Canada
- Brampton (Ontario) right wing Porter Martone, Canada
- Brandon (Ontario) center Roger McQueen, Canada
Note: Wisconsin defenseman Logan Hensler, an American, is ranked 10th.
Top international skaters
Rank, player, nationality
- Djurgarden right wing Victor Eklund, Sweden
- Djurgarden center Anton Frondell, Sweden
- Dynamo Moscow Jr. center Ivan Ryabkin, Russia
- MoDo Jr. center Milton Gastrin, Sweden
- Karlovy Vary left wing Vojtech Cihar, Czechia
NHL draft lottery odds
The draft lottery winner can move up a maximum of 10 spots, so only the bottom 11 teams have a chance to win the No. 1 pick. The last-place team has an 18.5% chance of winning outright, plus would retain the first overall pick if a team that finishes 12th to 16th from the bottom wins the lottery.
Odds as of Jan. 13
- Chicago Blackhawks – 25.5%
- San Jose Sharks – 13.5%
- Nashville Predators – 11.5%
- Buffalo Sabres – 9.5%
- Seattle Kraken – 8.5%
- Anaheim Ducks – 7.5%
- New York Islanders – 6.5%
- Philadelphia Flyers – 6.0%
- Pittsburgh Penguins – 5.0%
- St. Louis Blues – 3.5%
- New York Rangers – 3.0%
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